Influence of Climate Factors on Aman Rice Yield in Bangladesh: Co-Integration and Vector Error Correction Model Approach

Abstract

Climate factors’ consequence on human performance has occurred as a worldwide apprehension in the earlier 30 years. This study explores climate factors’ influence on Aman rice production in Bangladesh. Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model approximation procedure is applied to measure the climate-crop harvest interrelation on the basis of country-level time series data for the time 1972-2019. Changing in mean maximum and minimum temperature, annual men rainfall, and average humidity are used as characteristic variables for climate factors. The result of the vector error correction model denotes that both in the long-run and short-run, average maximum temperature and average total rainfall inversely affect Aman rice yield in Bangladesh respectively. Average minimum temperature and average humidity positively affect Aman rice production in the short run respectively. Fertilizers and irrigation have a positive influence on Aman rice yield in the short-run correspondingly. Conversely, labor has a robust negative consequence on Aman rice yield in the short-run in Bangladesh agriculture. Policymakers would develop policies to control temperature and introduce heat-tolerant rice varieties and adaptation measures to sustain Aman rice production in Bangladesh.